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Adam Bear
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Adam Bear

Incoming JD Candidate

Stanford University

About Me

Hello! I’m an incoming JD candidate at Stanford Law School. I have a background in cognitive psychology and data science/machine learning for suicide prediction. This website contains a subset of my older published papers (see my Google Scholar page for a complete list) as well as occasional posts about Bayesian probability, causality, and decision making. You can reach me at adambear@gmail.com.

Interests

  • Judgment & Decision Making
  • Consciousness & Free Will
  • Evolutionary Game Theory
  • Bayesian Statistics

Education

  • PhD in Cognitive Psychology, 2018

    Yale University

  • MA in Philosophy, 2013

    Brown University

  • BA in Cognitive Science, 2013

    Brown University

Posts

Learning from my past and future selves
The tragic irony of harsh punishment
The (non)sense of emotional hedging
Hindsight bias is not rational
How I came to love the standard of reasonableness
Simpson's paradox on trial
When lawgic and probability conflict
Don't turn the LSAT into a lottery
The randomness that's fair
Unpacking the logic of self-signaling
The subtle logic of strategic ignorance
A difference in Likert means could be a difference in latent variances
Using ordinal regression for signal detection theory
What is evidence to a Bayesian?
Does failure to reveal information reveal information?
The Pólya urn model of belief
Probability is plausibility
Why evidential and causal decision theory usually agree
The limits of Big Data for self-help
Bayes workshop

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