Adam Bear
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Does failure to reveal information reveal information?
Riding my Peloton is one of my favorite hobbies. Sometimes, though, my real-life friends don’t want to be my Peloton friends. They …
May 22, 2023
19 min read
The Pólya urn model of belief
It’s common for modelers to want to estimate uncertainty over fractions or probabilities. For example, we might want to estimate the …
Mar 14, 2023
11 min read
Probability is plausibility
In the fall of 2021, I taught a seminar on good reasoning. A central aim of the course was to teach students to think about probability …
Feb 15, 2023
14 min read
Why evidential and causal decision theory usually agree
A friend of mine once told me about a colleague of his with a controversial opinion: it’s a good thing that elite colleges …
Jan 5, 2023
23 min read
The limits of Big Data for self-help
I recently read a book about how Big Data can help you “get what you really want in life” and avoid over-relying on your …
Aug 10, 2022
26 min read
Bayes workshop
All of the code for this workshop is available on GitHub. We encourage you to play around with the examples as you follow along. …
Aug 31, 2020
22 min read
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