Posts

Imagine you have a friend who boasts about his remarkable success in predicting the outcome of baseball games. He brags that he …
14 min read

Consider the following puzzle. On one hand, pure luck shouldn’t make one person more deserving of punishment than another. To …
16 min read

We’re often willing to undergo unpleasant short-term experiences for long-term benefits. We exercise to promote longevity, study hard …
11 min read

Many of life’s decisions boil down to the following dilemma: would you rather settle for a guaranteed reward or take a risk by …
24 min read

In my last post, I discuss the motivation for using cumulative ordinal regression models to represent ordinal dependent measures, such …
18 min read

My lab from graduate school, which once studied cooperation, has pivoted to focusing on misinformation and fake news. Although I’ve …
19 min read

Imagine you’re a juror in a criminal trial in which the defendant, John, is alleged to have murdered his former boss. The prosecution …
11 min read

Riding my Peloton is one of my favorite hobbies. Sometimes, though, my real-life friends don’t want to be my Peloton friends. They …
19 min read

It’s common for modelers to want to estimate uncertainty over fractions or probabilities. For example, we might want to estimate the …
11 min read

In the fall of 2021, I taught a seminar on good reasoning. A central aim of the course was to teach students to think about probability …
14 min read