Adam Bear
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The tragic irony of harsh punishment
In graduate school I was captivated by the power of agent-based models. In a few lines of code, I could simulate virtual societies of …
Mar 27, 2026
10 min read
The (non)sense of emotional hedging
During my junior year of high school, the New England Patriots seemed unstoppable. The team, led by star quarterback Tom Brady, had …
Feb 2, 2026
18 min read
Hindsight bias is not rational
\(\newcommand{\avg}{\mathbb{E}}\)Do you believe in magic? Here’s a trick that’s guaranteed to make you think you’re smarter than you …
Dec 14, 2025
25 min read
How I came to love the standard of reasonableness
Recently, in the course of amateur trading, I heard about the exchange-traded fund BOXX. BOXX is a new professionally managed fund that …
Oct 13, 2025
12 min read
Simpson's paradox on trial
While O. J. Simpson was on trial for murdering his ex-wife, his lawyer Alan Dershowitz argued that Simpson’s history of domestic abuse …
Aug 5, 2025
13 min read
When lawgic and probability conflict
If you wanted to design the perfect LSAT question to drive me crazy, it would look pretty close to this: Cognitive psychologist: During …
May 20, 2025
15 min read
Don't turn the LSAT into a lottery
Imagine you have a friend who boasts about his remarkable success in predicting the outcome of baseball games. He brags that he …
May 9, 2025
14 min read
The randomness that's fair
Consider the following puzzle. On one hand, pure luck shouldn’t make one person more deserving of punishment than another. To …
Jan 31, 2025
16 min read
Unpacking the logic of self-signaling
We’re often willing to undergo unpleasant short-term experiences for long-term benefits. We exercise to promote longevity, study hard …
Oct 16, 2024
11 min read
The subtle logic of strategic ignorance
Many of life’s decisions boil down to the following dilemma: would you rather settle for a guaranteed reward or take a risk by …
Aug 1, 2024
24 min read
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